Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
