A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
